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Prediction for CME (2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-23T15:05Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26158/-1
CME Note: Halo CME with shock front preceding the brighter bulk. Its source is likely an eruption in AR3376 (N23W34) starting after 2023-07-23T14:00Z, likely associated with the C5.2 class flare from AR 3376 (N23W34) peaking at 2023-07-23T14:57Z. There also was a C7.4 class flare from AR 3372 on the NW limb at the time that has to be considered. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 6 nT to 17 nT, rapid velocity increase from ~390 km/s to 550 km/s, and accompanying density increase. Flux rope may have started closer to 2023-07-26T03:44Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-25T21:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-27T01:33Z (-12.56h, +13.53h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/07/23 14:45Z
Plane of Sky 1: 21:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 4:00
POS Midpoint: 23:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:55

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.29
Travel Time: ~9.29 * 8:55 = 82:48

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-27T01:33Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 47.18 hour(s)
Difference: -27.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-07-23T22:43Z

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